Kevin Rudd at the JFK Forum

Kevin Rudd is highly respected as a US-China scholar.  He has recently released a report on US-China relations in which he concludes:

• On balance the Chinese economic model is sustainable at about 6% pa.
• China believes the US is hostile to China's rise
• US sees China as trying to push US out of Asia
• Armed conflict between US and China is highly unlikely
• China will begin to take a more pro active role in global order - forced to because its population and interests are spread throughout the globe

China faces many challenges: will it be the first great nation to grow old before it grows rich?  Will it step in to the Middle East if the US decides to withdraw?

China's current global strategy is one related almost exclusively to securing energy and resources.  Whether it will take more active military or peace keeping stance in geo politics in the future is an open question.